The following musings are not a complete analysis, just some thoughts in no particular order:
Item - Terrorists - Terrorists were the big losers in this election, the American people the big winners. Osama bin Laden's last minute infomercial was a dud. There was not one incident of terror on election day in the USA. For a country this large & open & for a foe so unrelenting & widespread, election day would have been perfect for a terrorist act. We may have been more successful against these pigs than we know.
Item - Exit Polls - The collective exit polls were so egregiously off the mark that either it was due to gross incompetence or something more sinister. Every exit poll had Kerry leading in states that he had no business leading. These polls led voters to assume Kerry would win in a landslide. They also could intentionally or not sway voters. Exit poll groups need to be investigated by Congress.
Item - Standard Polls - Every other day polls would show a dramatic shift in voter inclinations. And most polls were at odds with competing polls. Americans are not so fickle that their sympathies shift that quickly that dramatically. The only real poll is the one at the voting booth. Everyone needs to be reminded that polls are not edicts from heaven.
Item - The News Media - There they go again. The major news channels showed a bias toward Kerry when projecting winning states. New Jersey was declared Kerry's by 4% vote & 70% precincts reporting. Yet Arkansas was claimed too close to call with Bush leading by near doubles digits. Ohio, which if declared for Bush, would have given him 269 electoral votes, 1 shy of winning. Yet, although Bush was clearly leading by 140,000 votes, CNN, CBS & others withheld giving it to Bush until Kerry conceded. The argument that, well, provisional ballots had not yet been counted holds no water, because provisional ballots were pending in other states with minuscule leads by Kerry yet they were quickly called for Kerry. When it was obvious Bush would take Ohio, still CNN & others refused to call states like Nevada for Bush - which would put him over the top - even though 99% of precincts were in & Bush was up 3%. It is obvious to some of us what the media was trying to do. And let's not for RatherGate - the slick attempt by CBS to discredit Bush or the New York Times distorted last minute explosives story.
Item - SwiftBoat Veterans - In response to Kerry's use of his Vietnam experience in the campaign, the SwiftBoats came out & did heavy damage to Kerry, whether you believe the Swiftees or not. Had it not been for them, this election might have been closer or Kerry's to win. Kerry's failure to take them seriously or answer their charges allowed the issue to remain in the news for a long time, overshadowing other issues Kerry would have preferred in the news. Mission accomplished, sailors.
Item - Voter Fraud & Irregularities - Amazingly, these became non-issues. I expected some planned, small chaos in the battleground states. Beside a few problems, this never came to be. It was a relatively quiet, well organized voting process.
Item - Litigation of Votes - Again, I expected a flood of litigation by Dem & Repub lawyers fighting tooth & nail in every battleground precinct. This did not happen. There were some issues brought before some courts, but far from the alarming numbers I expected.
Item - The Democratic Party - The Dems must rethink their purpose in life, their raison d'etre.
They have lost more in the Senate, more in the House, more govenorships. They are rapidly becoming a minority party. Their blue states fringe the west coast, the northeast & part of the Great Lakes states. The vast fly-over country is becoming more & more red. The South, once solidly Dem, is long gone. Even within their blue states they have won by narrow or narrower margins then previously. A map of the USA broken down by counties shows precious few blue. I think the Dems have drifted too far to the left on social issues & eagerly embraced the likes of Michael Moore & the Hollywood crowd - Kerry claiming they are "the real American values." Fiscally, they still have a penchant for big government & its big spending, thinking the American taxpayer is a bottomless source for their programs. But that's for them to figure out.
Item - the Republicans - Juxtaposed to the above scenario of blue state/red state, the Republicans will remain the leading party for a long time unless they lose sight of their base & their values or until the Dems become competitive with that base. The Republicans must not fall into the trap of becoming big spenders & in enlarging government. I've seen signs of this in the Bush Administration & the Republican Congress & hope it is not a trend. Because then they become competitors with the Dems for feely-good promises that will only burden the taxpayer more.
Item - John Kerry - It is very tempting to gloat & very tempting to do some payback bashing, especially since he was constantly & unfairly bashing Bush during the campaign - calling Bush a liar, or that he misled, or that he is incompetent, or that he is a failure or that he was AWOL. To Bush's credit he did not return the compliments. That said, Kerry lost because of, well, Kerry. He never displayed convictions on issues. Nothing was definite - there was always a "but" or a qualification or a nuanced stance or an outright contradiction to what he earlier stated ( the famous flip-flops). He always tried to come across as a "good old boy" when in fact by temperament & upbringing he could never be one. He came across as phony or pandering. He talked of his deer hunting days to hunters & was totally off the mark on how one hunts deer. One of his constituents received a letter from Kerry saying he was for the Iraq war & then this same constituent received another Kerry letter saying he was against it. This is Kerry. And this is why he lost. If he had stood up & been resolute in his beliefs he would have been more understood, more respected & maybe elected. Kerry won his own Massachusetts by less than Al Gore did. This says something. I thought Kerry unfit for President if for no other reason then his vitriolic, patently unfair bashing of the Vietnam soldiers. I think there was more to Kerry's efforts than has been publicly released. That was then. But now with us in Iraq, whether it warrants being there or not, he has certainly undermined our efforts there(along with the Democrat leadership & media). And I have a hard time forgiving him for that. I thought Kerry was going to pull an Al Gore & fight this to the bitter end. But I guess reality hit him & he realized that 140,000 vote gap in Ohio was just too much.
I do give Kerry much credit for the gracious concession phone call to Bush & the concession speech. As much as I opposed Kerry, it must have been bitter to lose ones' lifelong dream by such a narrow margin. I would have been devastated. Kudoos to Kerry.
Item - George Bush - I'm biased here. Bush had what Kerry never could - unshakeable core beliefs. You may disagree with them, but you knew where he was coming from. You knew he would pursue the terrorists, you knew he would do everything to protect the USA, you knew he was opposed to abortion, you knew he wanted tax cuts. You knew America would come first with him. There were no nuances as with Kerry. Bush also has what Kerry only pretended to have - the "good old boy" charm. He came across as a common man, whether you believe he was or wasn't. He related so well to the person singular, to the individual. He was dealt a tough deck when 911 hit, unlike any other President save maybe FDR. And he responded in a way that even I was surprised at. Whether he should have gone into Iraq will be debated for a long time & the success or failure of Iraq will answer that question, but he had the backing of Congress or so they told him. I expect good things from him.
Item - the Hate Crowd - the left wing hate consortium, made up of the likes of Michael Moore, his Hollywood compadres, the extremists in the Democrat party, the environmental, animal rights, pro-abortion, feminist, America bashing extremists & the loose collection of other nuts have been rabid about Bush. They have said extreme things & done extreme things & generally have lost sight of rationality because of their hate. For some reason they have this all consuming hate for Bush & it is not healthy. For them or for America. And the truth be known - many of them, especially the rich ones, care not about the common folks. I don't know if it is pathologic or what, but they can not be reasoned with. They sing the same old lines - war for oil, Halliburton, massacring Iraqi's, evil America, taking old folks social security - gosh, where's my list when I need it. All of it disproved, but that doesn't stop them. And the Democrats embrace them. It's time for the Democrats to step away from them & minimize them or the Dems will only further their own demise. The whackos are not going to change, so don't give them voice. It only hurts the Dems & the USA.
Item - the Voter - Voters need to put a tad more effort into learning the issues rather than voting Dem or Repub because grandaddy did or because someone has a nice smile. But there's no law against being uninformed when you vote. And voters need to instill some civic lessons & civic pride in their children, because the schools sure will not. They need to teach their children three words - duty, honor, country. Then all else will fall in place.
....from sea to shining sea